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Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire: Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire — News, polls and buzz
A new Siena College Poll finds Rep. Michael Grimm (R-NY) has opened a wide, 19-point lead over challenger Domenic Recchia (D), 53% to 34%.

Said pollster Steven Greenberg: “Early on, this race looked like it was going to be one of the closest in the state – a former Democratic City Council member taking on an embattled incumbent Republican under Federal indictment in a district that is – at least by enrollment – dominated by Democrats. That no longer seems to be the case, as Grimm has taken a commanding 19-point lead into the final days of the campaign.”
A new CNN/ORC poll in North Carolina finds Sen. Kay Hagan (D) leads challenger Thom Tillis (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 46%.

A new Fox News poll finds Hagan ahead by one point, 43% to 42%.
A new CNN/ORC survey in Iowa finds Joni Ernst (R) leading Bruce Braley (D) in the U.S. Senate race by two points, 49% to 47%.

A new Rasmussen survey has Ernst ahead by one point, 48% to 47%.

A new Fox News poll also has Ernst ahead by one point, 45% to 44%.

A new Des Moines Register poll will be released on Saturday night.
A new Fox News poll in Kansas Greg Orman (I) holds a one-point edge over Sen. Pat Roberts (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 44% to 43%.

A similar poll three weeks ago found Roberts leading by three points.
Glen Bolger and Neil Newhouse: “Democrats like to accuse Republicans of being bad at science, but in fact we’re really bad at math. Winning in a non-presidential-turnout year, when older and white voters make up a larger percentage of the electorate, should convince no one that we’ve fixed our basic shortfalls with key electoral groups, including minorities and younger voters.”

“Assuming that the Democrats replicate their 2012 electoral success with minority voters two years from now, and assuming that Hispanics grow as a percentage of the overall electorate, which they will, we calculate that Democrats will already have almost half (24 percent) of the votes they need to win a majority of Americans in 2016. To win 50.1 percent of the popular vote, we estimate, Republicans will need nearly 64 percent of the white vote — which would be a record for a non-incumbent Republican presidential candidate. Remember, Mitt Romney and John McCain won 59 percent and 55 percent of the white vote, respectively; and even in victory, George W. Bush took only 58 percent of the white vote in 2004.”
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Wisconsin finds Gov. Scott Walker (R) leading challenger Mary Burke (D)by just one point, 48% to 47%.
“Let me tell you something: The Ohio Supreme Court is the backstop for all those other votes you are going to cast. Whatever the governor does, whatever your state representative, your state senator does, whatever they do, we are the ones that will decide whether it is constitutional; we decide whether it’s lawful. We decide what it means, and we decide how to implement it in a given case. So, forget all those other votes if you don’t keep the Ohio Supreme Court conservative.”

— Ohio Supreme Court Justice Judith French, quoted by the Columbus Dispatch.
“I’ll be very, very honest with you: The South has not always been the friendliest place for African Americans. It’s been a difficult time for the president to present himself in a very positive light as a leader.”

— Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA), in an interview with NBC News.
“Convicted killer Nikko Jenkins offered his take on the race in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District at a hearing to determine his mental status Wednesday,” KETV reports.

Shouted Jenkins: “Hey you guys, vote for Lee Terry! Best Republican ever!”

“Democrats had called for the removal of commercials by the National Republican Campaign Committee, one of which shows a photo of Jenkins and claims Terry’s challenger, Brad Ashford, ‘supported the good time law and still defends it, allowing criminals like Nikko Jenkins to be released early.’ The Terry campaign stood behind the ad.”
“The 2014 midterm elections are days away, but preparation are already underway for the first debate of the 2016 presidential primary contest,” the AP reports.

“The Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation announced on Thursday that it will invite GOP presidential candidates to attend a televised debate at California’s Reagan Library in September 2015.”
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